5.31.22 - Power supply is adequate for summer heat, but caution needed in future years
'RENSSELAER — New York should have adequate supplies of electricity to meet summer air conditioning needs this year.
But in coming years, as new mandates are supposed to phase out ‘'peaker'’ gas and oil plants that operate during high-demand periods, there will be a smaller cushion for dealing with heat waves, which are when the grid is most heavily taxed.
That was the outlook offered Friday by the New York Independent System Operator, the organization that helps run the state’s massive electricity grid by conducting ongoing dispatches or routing of energy from power plants to where it is needed.
“Reliability margins are tightening across New York over time,” said Emilie Nelson, NYISO’s executive vice president.
“We must move carefully with the grid in the future,” she added.
The cautionary note regarding future years stems in part from what’s happened in other states that haven’t put aside enough energy reserves to use during emergencies.
Texas residents in 2021 suffered through a power outage when an ice storm took out power lines and wind towers that are supplying electricity to a growing portion of that state’s grid.
And in California, energy planners are warning that they need more reserves to deal with the heat waves and wildfires that have plagued the state in recent years. Golden State residents endured rolling blackouts during a 2020 heat wave.
In New York and California, the issue stems in part from the speed with which the two states are moving from fossil fuel-based energy grids to ones powered by carbon-free sources such as solar and wind power, as well as nuclear generation.
New York’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Plan lays out broad guidelines for de-carbonizing the state’s power grid in order to combat climate change.
Part of the plan calls for deactivating the peaker plants, many of which are downstate, starting in 2023.
But to do that, the state will need adequate sources of power from renewables and backup power. If they aren’t up and running in the next few years, and if there are unusually calm or cloudy days that would reduce wind or solar output, the fossil fuel plants may still be needed.
New York still gets most of its electricity from gas (23 percent), dual-fuel, which is gas or oil (31 percent), hydropower (22 percent) and nuclear power (21 percent). Wind and solar are less than 4 percent.
For this summer, power demand is continuing to bounce back from the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when numerous buildings, businesses and industrial plants were closed.
“We absolutely saw reduced energy demand during the pandemic and we’re starting to see that rebound,” said Nelson.
Looking ahead to the air conditioning season, NYISO found the state has a total of 41,049 MW, or megawatts, of power resources available to meet peak demand estimated at 31,765 MW. '
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