5.20.24 - Some concerns about reliability of NY’s electrical grid as summer nears
' ALBANY — New Yorkers can expect the state electrical grid to cover regular peak summertime demand, but a significant heat wave could bring potential blackouts and the need for emergency power sources
The New York Independent System Operator released a report Friday saying that more than 40,700 megawatts of power sources are available to meet an estimated 33,300 megawatts of peak demand, which measures the average total demand for a one-hour period.
NYISO, a not-for-profit corporation that manages the state’s electrical grid and marketplace, said reliability margins — which measure the electrical grid’s “insurance policy” of extra power to be used during periods of high demand or unforeseen circumstances — are continuing to shrink.
Reliability margins have declined by more than 1,000 megawatts in two years, Emilie Nelson, executive vice president and chief operating officer at NYISO, said.
“That’s a significant issue especially when we’re impacted by heat waves,” Nelson said in a statement.
A single megawatt — equivalent to 1,000 kilowatts — of electricity covers the demand of 800 to 1,000 homes.
“Accounting for certain factors, including unavailable generation and operating reserve requirements, the reliability margin under baseline conditions is 752 (megawatts),” a NYISO news release says. “Under extreme weather scenarios, reliability margins are forecasted to be deficient.”
The electrical grid operator said that if New York experiences a three-day heat wave with temperatures reaching 95 degrees, the state could experience a capacity deficit of more than 1,400 megawatts. If a heat wave reaches three or more days at 98 degrees, that deficit is forecast to more than double.
“This has been a concern for quite some time and now it is a red light concern,” Gavin Donohue, president of the Independent Power Producers of New York, said previously. “We’ve gone from yellow to red.”
The current summer peak demand record — nearly 34,000 megawatts in July 2013 — came after a weeklong heat wave.
Deficient reliability margins would result in emergency operations to try to avoid blackouts and could lead to brownouts and increased reliance on emergency energy purchases from neighboring states or regions. The system operators would dispatch up to 3,275 megawatts under emergency procedures to try to maintain reliability.
Donohue said Monday that if heat waves last longer and continue to keep the reliability margins in deficiency, there could be an increased chance of blackouts.
In light of the report on the electrical grid this summer, Donohue said that it “should be an eye opener for the state of New York.” '