11.29.23 - New York energy transition faces reliability challenges, grid operator says
' The New York independent grid operator is warning that the retirement of fossil fuel plants on the system is outpacing new renewables coming online even as demand for electricity grows.
The New York Independent System Operator on Wednesday released its 2023 “Comprehensive Reliability Plan,” part of its regular planning process to ensure the reliability of New York’s electric grid. The nonprofit is tasked with keeping the lights on even on the hottest and coldest days of the year when electricity demand spikes.
Reliability concerns have been raised repeatedly by the NYISO in recent years, although the report concludes there’s enough power to meet forecasted demand from 2026 through 2032. But several risks could lead to reliability needs being identified next year.
Why it matters: New York is undergoing an unprecedented shift to its energy system that currently relies mostly on natural gas to produce the electricity needed for homes and businesses. The state’s climate goals include aggressive buildout of renewables and mandate retirement of some fossil fuel plants in the coming decade.
That shift is happening as electricity demand grows from increasing electric vehicles and heat pumps — and as manufacturers and other large energy users are courted to bring jobs to upstate New York.
“Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO’s in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid,” said Zach Smith, vice president of system and resource planning.
Balancing the aging fossil fuel fleet and units targeted for closure with the influx of renewables supported by the state, which has run into major hurdles due to inflation and supply chain issues, falls to the NYISO as the arbiter of meeting federal reliability rules.
The retirement of the New York Power Authority’s fleet of downstate peakers in 2030, without replacements, could lead to a reliability gap as soon as the next year, according to the NYISO’s report. A mandate included in the state budget this year calls for those retirements, but has some caveats and offramps that would allow NYPA to keep operating the plants if there’s a reliability issue.'